Farmer Sentiment: A 23-Point Gut Punch

This Week In Ag #153

Was it a case of the winter blues? Or meetings with their bankers? Either way, farmer attitudes in January could not have changed any faster than if they’d stepped on a Lego.

Farmer sentiment dropped 23 points over the previous month, according to the Purdue Ag Economy Barometer, placing it well below the poll’s mean. It’s the lowest since the 2024 election. The Future Expectations Index dropped 25 points. And when asked whether US agriculture would have good times or bad times in the next five years, the index dropped a staggering 34 points.

It’s easy to see why.

Corn growers farming the richest soil on earth, in central Illinois, are projected to lose $55/A on cash-rent ground, based on University of Illinois forecasts. That’s with a projected yield of 241 bu/A. Those employing a corn/soybean are projected to lose $15/A across their enterprise.

Chapter 12 bankruptcies were up 46% last year. Based on the 2026 projections, this sad trend may worsen.

Half of producers surveyed feel their operation is worse off than it was a year ago. For 2026, 30% expect a worse financial performance than last year. Only 4% plan to increase farm machinery purchases.

When asked if things in the US are heading in the right direction, 62% believed so. That’s down from 75% in December. For the past several months, that number has trended above 70%.

To make matters worse, last month the House failed to include year-round federal approval for the use of E-15 ethanol. Switching gas pumps from the current 10% level to a 15% ethanol blend would boost corn demand by 2.4 billion bushels.

This month, USDA is dispensing $12 billion in aid to farmers, with $11 billion going to row-crop growers. Problem is, 53% of farmers say they will use these funds to pay down debt and 10% will use it to cover family living expenses. Not exactly creating a boom to the US farm economy.

Just five years ago, a corn-soybean rotation netted central Illinois farmers a record $314/A average on cash rent ground. That seems like ancient history.