This Week In Ag #132
Fall is typically an exciting time on the farm. Whether it’s fruit, vegetables or grain, fall is, as Johnny Cash famously sang, “Pickin’ time.” Farmers usually can’t wait to climb into their combines and intently stare at numbers flashing upon the yield monitor. Or sort and weigh their crates of produce. But lately, autumn has signaled anything but excitement. Farmer sentiment dropped 10 points last month, dipping to the lowest point since last September. Granted, it’s still well above the sentiments recorded over the past four Septembers, but farmer expectations are moving in the wrong direction. And for good reason. Last week USDA raised its projected 2025 farm production expenses by $17 billion. That would set a record of $467 billion. Within this number, cost components of labor, interest, maintenance, taxes, marketing and livestock all set record highs (fertilizer actually dropped 1% YOY).
What’s even more astounding: this year’s overall crop input costs even eclipse that of 2022, when urea peaked at over $1,000/ton and anhydrous ammonia went for $1,600/ton. Of course, that’s when corn and wheat prices were also trading for double what they are today. USDA also just lowered net cash farm income – a main indicator of farmers’ cash flow – by $13 billion, about 7%, over previous forecasts. Still, USDA projects net farm income to jump 40% over last year, to $179.5 billion. That would be the second-highest on record. How can that be, you say?
Numbers never lie. But they can mislead. When it comes to the farm economy, prosperity rests on what side of the fence you’re on. Led by the burgeoning cattle market, livestock receipts are expected to grow by $30 billion (11%). The rest of 2025’s expected growth is due to a quadruple increase in government subsidies, to the tune of $40 billion (and look for more to come). Then there’s the crop production segment. Those cultivating the nation’s largest crop are expected to lose an average of $161/acre this year. What makes this especially devastating to the ag industry is the sheer footprint of corn. That encompasses 526,000 farmers canvassing over 97 million acres. Like it or not, as corn goes, so does much of the ag industry. As the biggest user of crop nutrients, corn also drives the fertilizer business. It accounts for over two-thirds of all nitrogen usage, and over half of all P and K.
If these numbers sound depressing, wait until next year. Input costs for growing corn are expected to reach $916/acre – just below the record levels of $928 in 2022 – and return an average loss of $181 per acre. All of this makes our grandfather’s method of diversification – with farmers raising multiple crops and livestock – sound anything but antiquated.
Related Posts
The Tradition of Easter Eggs: From Symbolism to Celebration
The Tradition of Easter Eggs: From Symbolism to Celebration Easter is not only a time for religious reflection, but also a celebration of the season's most iconic symbol: the egg. Did you know Americans purchase 180 million eggs just for Easter? Eggs have long been associated with new life, which makes them the perfect symbol for this holiday. The practice of gifting eggs dates back to early Christianity, when eggs were saved during Lent—a time when fasting meant meat could not be consumed. But eggs, easily preserved without refrigeration, were kept and often given to children on Easter, sometimes painted red to symbolize the blood of Christ. Today, we still celebrate with hard-boiled and decorated eggs, but modern Easter traditions also include the ever-popular chocolate eggs. In fact, over 91 billion chocolate eggs are sold for Easter each year! Another beloved tradition is the Easter Egg Roll, a fun and historic event symbolizing the rolling away of the stone from Christ’s tomb. The White House has hosted an official Egg Roll since 1878, and today, it continues to bring joy to thousands, thanks to the efforts of our First Ladies.
This Week in Ag #44
Now’s the time when holiday enthusiasts start dreaming of a White Christmas. But the marshmallow world created by falling snowflakes offers much more than a glistening backdrop for a Hallmark movie. And nobody choruses “Let it snow, let it snow, let it snow” louder than farmers. In the northern states, snow can account for 2/3 of
Making Memories by Making Hay
Making Memories by Making Hay A nostalgic look back at the labor, sweat, and family memories made during hay season — from hand-stacking square bales to the arrival of the game-changing round baler.
